13 Comments
Feb 23Liked by Dakara

There’s a problem with your argument: the speed of light puts a hard ceiling on the exponential growth curve.

As an illustration of this imagine i have an AGI; and i add more compute to it to make it smarter, to simplify this lets imagine that it’s 1 dimensional thing, we start at 0 and things are at integer positions. Eventually we get to a position, that’s so far from 0, that the time it takes for the signal to get back to 0 is greater than the time it takes to just compute the result at position 0. For this reason the ASI *can’t* scale forever, it has to plateau. We can scale in all 3 dimensions but the distance from one end to the other is still a constraint, we can make the compute units smaller and faster but there’s a limit.

We actually can’t make CPUs with terra-hertz clock speeds because that you either need transistors smaller than atoms or FTL, we’re near the end of improvement for digital computing period; AGI only has a shot because tensor cores essentially emulate an analogue computer which still have a ton of headroom to grow.

technology is going to hit a hard ceiling probably sometime this century, where it can’t get any better because it would need to violate lightspeed to do so.

Expand full comment
Feb 23Liked by Dakara

Dakara, I would ask you to take some time to explore the Luddites and there response/reaction to the first industrial revolution. I am convinced you could write something compelling. Their enemy was innovation, business entreprenuers and governments that embraced a shiny and deceptive promise of "new and better" of cheaper, faster, better, more consistent textiles. I think we are there again, this time most of us are or will soon to be the Luddites facing as you discussed, a point of inflection. Where the Luddites went wrong was turning their realizations into a binary "we win/they win" scenerio which rapidly put them into jeapordy, criminal behaviour and the destruction of their movement. I think there are some battles that cannot be won but potentially they could be channeled into a new direction if Luddites were willing to learn to play chess with the powers that be.

Expand full comment